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chenyan94 Offline



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19.12.2018 04:08
Kicker Consideration: Michael Dickson’s foot-forced fumbles Antworten

While we Seattle Seahawks Hats , the anxious and curious fans of the Seattle Seahawks, listened to Brock Huard during the preseason, we were told about the numerous punts of fifth round pick Michael Dickson. It was stated, multiple times, that Dickson had punts that could cause various problems for those trying to return them. Whether it’s the fluttering kangaroo kick or the spinning drop bear, is there any measurable effect to this unending arsenal of Australian punts?Scraping through NCAA college football data, let’s take a look at Dickson against his contemporaries from 2015 to 2017 to determine what, if any, difference in fumbled catch percentage exists. MethodologyPart of the problem with scraping out NCAA data and trying to do analysis on bulk FBS data is that there are so many schools, and the quality of School A can be so far from that of School B that the comparisons stop making sense. For instance, are punters from non-power five schools—what is power five?—more likely to benefit from a fumble on the catch due to lower skill among returners? Are power five kickers more likely to benefit from fumbles of non-power five schools? These are questions that aren’t easy to answer, but for the sake of somewhat accurate comparison we will be looking at power five punters facing other power five schools to try and remove these possible sources of bias — sorry UCF, though I will admit Mac Loudermilk is a boss. Also, we will be looking at punters with at least 30 punts from 2015 to 2017. Reducing dimensions and data availabilityLike NFL data, we don’t have hang time available to take a look at and while there are more ways to slice the data, there is really only one dimension that shows anything interesting that I found. In general Seattle Seahawks Hoodie , the variability of the percentage of fumbled punts decreases as the number of punts increases which makes sense and we would expect. Variance tends to decrease as sample increases, that isn’t news. With the black line representing the average fumble percentage, we see that Dickson is indeed above average. He’s not world beating and he’s not exactly drilling guys in the face. But let’s take a look at the full data set, does Dickson stand out among all college punters since 2013 with at least 100 punts? The short answer is yes, but again not in a way that makes him an extreme outlier. What’s really interesting about this? Well, for punters this type of advantage tends to almost completely evaporate at the NFL level.Among NFL punters with at least 100 punts between 2009 and 2017, the average fumbled catch percentage is less than one percent. Even more telling is within that population the punters that are/were really good at causing fumbles with their kicks hit about two percent. The kick returners at the NFL level are the very best NCAA has to offer, we should expect they won’t fumble nearly as often.Wrapping upDid Dickson cause fumbles more often at the college level? The answer appears to be yes. But given how much better returners are in the NFL, we shouldn’t expect that to carry over at the same rate. A four-percent fumble percentage would make him elite, half of that would make him among the best in the modern NFL. If Dickson can hit two-percent, which would be a pleasant surprise, that would mean one or two extra turnovers per season on average. So while the allure of exotic punts may have us excited, the effect is likely to be much less pronounced than has been espoused by in game commentary. Sorry, Brock.Russell Wilson got the ball out quick against Dallas I’ve made it no secret that one of my concerns with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is that he has a tendency to hold the ball too long, and that if he would get the ball out quicker it would help not just the offense in general, but the pass protection and offensive line as well. On Sunday he did exactly what he needed to do - get the ball out quickly - and the impact that had on the passing game was readily visible. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats Cheap Customized Seattle Seahawks Jerseys , Wilson had a time to throw of 2.58 seconds against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, which gave him the eighth fastest time to throw of all quarterbacks with enough snaps to qualify on Sunday. The results on him taking fewer hits was immediately apparent, as Russ was sacked a season low two times in the game while taking seven hits. That is a vast improvement over the first two weeks of the season, when he was sacked a dozen times and hit 19 times against the Chicago Bears andDenver Broncos. Now, for comparison purposes, the flip side of this situation in Week 3 was Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Carr is renowned for having one of the quickest releases in the league, and that has contributed to significant accolades for the Oakland Raiders offensive line. After posting a time to throw of 2.46 seconds and 2.34 seconds in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively, Carr took 2.64 seconds to get the ball out against the Miami Dolphins. The difference which resulted from that extra two to three tenths of a second before he threw the ball contributed to Carr taking more sacks and more hits against Miami than he had in the two opening weeks combined. That is how critical it is for a quarterback to be decisive and deliver the ball quickly in the NFL, as every tenth of a second a quarterback holds the ball translates into a huge number of extra hits taken over the course of the season. So, while it’s only one game, hopefully it’s the start of a trend for Wilson because 2.58 seconds is faster than his time to throw in any game from the 2017 season. We won’t know until the games are played, but hopefully he shows similar results against the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday.

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